Week 3, the blog changes tone.

Reader, you are owly in your pursuit of the voles of knowledge herein. Bloody delicious!!!

Wash your hands, potential host for whatever virus! Or stab yourself in the eye.

Hey, stabbing myself in the eye reminds me of week 3 of my 8 fantasy leagues. If you're paying attention, (and if you're reading this, you are) you're aware that there are a huge number of injuries and malperformers clogging rosters thus far this season. Cole Hamels, Matt Holliday, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and many others are KILLING US. Sorry, you have to stick with these guys. The day you bench them, they'll go off, I promise. Last year, C.C. Sabathia's ERA did not dip under 7.00 last year until May 9th. And he ended up with an ERA of 2.70 for the entire year. Sure, being traded from the AL to the NL Central didn't hurt, but he was nigh untouchable from then on. Moral of the story? Stick with these bums, take the hit early, because you'll clean HOUSE from here on.

Stupid World Baseball Classic.

However, you may know some people in your league with particularly panicky personalities who might be willing to deal one of these uber stars for someone who is OVERperforming...ergo, your Yadier Molina's, Adam Laroche's, Zack Grienke's, and so on. I'm sure you're not getting Cole Hamels for Yadier Molina, but you could put a package together if you're really into messing with people and don't have the focus or malevolence to write the conficker virus (up yours, whoever that is).

Overall record in my leagues thus far, W-L wise, is 12-12. This blog may take on a 'mediocre fantasy performer's lament' vibe before too long, but I'll remain optimistic that the above types will start to rake soon (a few of them are notoriously slow starters), and I'll ride a mad streak through May and be very well set up by the all-star break. Now go stone a teabagger. Kidding.

Yankees-related discussion:

YOU SUCK! AND YOU'RE PAYING MORE THAN ANYONE TO DO SO! AGAIN!!!!!

Just heard that one of the people who transferred the Swine Flu virus down in Mexico was a census taker, going door-to-door. What a smart little thing a virus is.

Disaster! Week 2! Hippie New Year, by the way

Well, Mozart and Hendrix died young, and I lost all of my important (money) leagues this week. Ugh-you never like that. Typically, you'll win some and lose some, but this week I didn't win ANY. I'm writing because it happens. And you might want to blow it up, trade everyone for new people, make a splash or do something because your spleen hurts and you can't sleep. Here's what I recommend.

1. Stop watching the numbers. They climb higher when you're not watching, I swear. Just give yourself a day (after you set your lineups).

2. Create some reasonable excuses for your team's giant turd burger. 'The Cardinals were rained out yesterday, if Ludwick, Molina, and Duncan all went 3-5 with HR's, I'd have evened the score'...which dovetails nicely with 'They'll have to play two sometime soon, and I'll have a dozen more AB's to look forward to then'. See? Hooray!

3. You ARE allowed to make a move or two. You can't wait until week 10 to make a change. For instance, I had no idea that Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith and Ian Stewart would be in the mix in the OF for the Rox. Apparently, neither did Spilly, who has struck out an uncharacteristic 83 times in just 29 AB's this year. It appears that his time as a part-timer has made him slow on the draw, and he needs something to chaw. But all he's getting is junk, and no cheese. So his hankerings go unquenched. Have I adequately referenced some shared childhood experience of ours? Maybe watching the rookie beeotches hit the balls with their bats will help him to do the same. I still predict good things for the man, but there are too many Blue Jays on the waiver wire to justify carrying a fifth outfielder who isn't producing. Which leads me to the point of this entry-

Pay attention and be patient. You don't need to read all the box scores for this one (although I do this, mainly because I am addicted to baseball numbers). You can track the best and worst fifteen free agents in your league in just a couple of minutes. If you have more time, you can check out who's been hot over the past week. See who else in your league is freaking out and vulture someone who began the season in a slump. Not only is this smart, but it'll give you EXCELLENT shit-talking artilliary down the road if it works out.

Also, rookies that are carrying teams will fall off, veterans who are slumping will pick up, and all your draft prep will pan out. Hitters rarely go 0-40. 0-20's are not uncommon, but typically guys will make something happen after twenty fruitless AB's. Don't get caught benching a guy who hasn't done anything the past couple games (see Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz today, 4/20), because your bench will routinely outperform your starters. It never works the other way.

Favorite thing in the league so far-

The Marlins with the lowest payroll own the best record in the majors. That means everyone on the team is worth looking at because they are young, virtually unknown, and likely available on your waiver wire. Also, Josh Johnson outpitched Johan Santana. Johan has already made Josh Johnson's whole salary this year. I just love this.

Now go visit some trees

Week 1 DOWN y'all

So after week 1, what have we learned?

-Ryan Spillborghs has what they call 'doubles power'. But, his K/BB ration is 6:1. Very unSpilly.
He's starting in most of my leagues again this week, but I think guys with 'doubles power' make more 'outs' than guys with 'home run power'. Still love him, though.

-Emilio Bonifacio-after reading that someone thinks he looks the roadrunner when he's on the bases, AND he now has the rare 2B/3B stamp of eligibility, it's time to ride this streak of his in all Roto/H2H leagues. This is old news.

-Denard Span is the man. Get him, keep him, and when Mauer's back on May 1st, watch his run totals pile up as high as that stupid trash bag they've got in right field in Minnesoty.

-Josh Johnson is good at pitching. Get him. Trade for him. Do something! I think the Marlins are going to surprise this year, possibly netting themselves some post-season action. I would like nothing better than to see a bunch of league-minimum guys, retreads, rehabbers, and guys who haven't lived up to their billing outperform the Mets and Phillies. Throw batteries at THAT, jerks.

-Jay Bruce is MAAD overrated. Everyone's got huge Bruce boners, but I just don't see it. He's young, sure. He came out of the gate mashing last year. Yes, I know. He's a middle-of-the-order monster to be. Just as soon as he stops swinging (as my dad would say) 'from his asshole' at pitches out of the zone. He ding-donged last night, but I'm not buying. I'm selling. If I could get Josh Johnson for Jay Bruce, I'd do it IMMEDIATELY. Even in a keeper league where I could have Jay Bruce for five years, or until he stopped having to whack it between AB's to keep his shit straight. Even then.

-Ryan Howard. Holy shit, if he's all 2006 Ryan Howard, where he's all 'oooh, I'm a .300 hitter who can go 50-150'. GET HIM. Howard's owners still have doubts so play on them..Hell, get guys that hit NEAR him...Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth...because he's going to inflate their stats too. The Phils are going to be a blast to watch miss the playoffs, because before Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson, there are nine question marks.

Join me in glaring with folded arms at Cole Hamels.

Good for you's (GFY's):

Good for you, Jordan Schafer. Ding donging in your MLB debut at bat. GFY.

Good for you, Miguel Cabrera, people aren't scared that you'll be the youngest, highest paid, type 2 diabetic in Detroit. You worked out this winter. GFY.

Good for you, Manny. You've apparently found the strongest grass in LA. No small task. 7 games into your contract with your new team, and you're talking about Cleveland. Too bad you'll miss Lebron, because he'll be in New York. GFY.

Good for you, Mark Texiera. Your wrist hurts. That's what happens when you yank the ownership of every team in the AL East. Go Yanks. GFY.

Good for you, Chien-Ming Wang. Your ERA is still under 30. GFY.

Auction Draft experience

First off, I was in the waning (and perhaps the most important) rounds of an online-snake draft, with a bunch of drunk and disorderlies, really laying into me. I, too, enjoy a good round of trash talking and so on, but here I am, engaged in mind games with a dozen drunk dudes and trying to make good picks. I didn't feel like I'd lose my edge, but perhaps I'd make a mistake due to the division of my attention.

Other factors to consider:

I only knew two of the dudes in the auction league, therefore we're a lot more cordial.
I was doing this auction draft on the phone. (Estimates put the total draft length at 4 hours, vurp)
These dudes were not drunk yet.
So I'm toggling between draft rooms, keeping track of everyone's picks (that's 26 people's worth), and trying to maintain some kind of edge with the Hammered Philadelphiliacs, and this room full of strangers from Cranston, RI on the phone. I was feeling very Bobby Fisher, playing a gymnasium full of chess matches.

This auction league is a 5x5, h2h keeper league, and I kept Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Stephen Drew, Ryan Ludwick, Cole Hamels, Jair Jurrjens, and Jay Bruce. All this cost me $22. I had $188 to play with. I have no speed or pitching. Hamels and Jurrjens are nice, but Hamels threw 260+ innings last year and the Braves are (in my opinion) rebuilding. Tough to rely on. I feel like what I've spent on my keepers gives me some flexibility, meaning I can go all in on a stud or two, and not worry too much about value. When I'm spending hours on end staring at the numbers over the season, I want to see names I like up there. Not a bunch of shots in the dark.

My turn to throw out a name. David Wright's my guy. I spend $52 on him. There's my stud.

The team eventually takes shape, looking like this:

Wieters, C ($9)
Fielder, 1B ($5-last year of his contract)
Kelley Johnson, 2B ($17)
S. Drew, SS ($2, 2nd year of contract)
D. Wright, 3B ($52)
J. Bruce, OF ($2-2nd year of contract)
R. Ludwick, OF ($2-2nd year of contract)
D. Span, OF ($1)
R. Howard, DH ($5-last year of contract)

C. Hamels, SP ($4-4th year of contract)
J. Jurrjens, SP ($2-2nd year of contract)
Y. Gallardo, SP ($27-Half-priced Johan Santana?)
M. Garza, SP ($25-former minor league pitcher of the year, untouchable in game 7 in last year's ALCS...this guy's absolutely for real)
C. Qualls, RP ($15, AZ closer, dominant in last year's second half, a steal compared to Joe Nathan for $35)
B.J. Ryan, RP ($17)

Bench:
My boy Ryan Spilborghs, Travis Snider, Sean Marshall (meh, Cubbies' 5th starter...think I'll drop him for Yadier Molina, as Wieters won't play for at least a month), and Chris R. Young.

With 3 dollars to spare. Now, it's obvious I'm short on steals, but I'm trying to move Bruce for someone with 5-category value. One of our categories is On-Base percentage, and frankly I don't think Bruce's will ever top .340. He doesn't walk, and while I don't doubt his talent, he's really just a 'sexier' Travis Snider.

So yes it was frustrating as hell to be on the phone for 4 hours, late to my softball game (ahem-4-4, HR, 3RBI, 3R definite first-round material), and all, but I think I am in the money in both leagues for SURE. The auction league's defending champion has won it in back-to-back years. The stage is set, you could say.

I don't recommend doing two drafts at once. Period. But I understand time is at a premium in the week or two before opening day, and sometimes you have to make sacrifices. The best approach, I believe, is NOT to drink (have I mentioned this?), to map out your strategy well beforehand, hone it in as many mock drafts as you can manage (Really, you want to win, you might as well do at least 15-20 of them), and just do your best to stay focused on Draft day. When you're only doing one draft at a time, it's much easier, and when your strategy becomes part of you (as it should, grasshoppers-heh), and you're SOBER, you will make out very well. Couple steals, couple mistakes, but you won't regret your roster.

See you in Old Town!

Fantasy Baseblog #16

That's right, I wrote fourteen other fbb blogs, and they are so top secret, the government made me burn them. Wow, maybe I could get the Cos to sign off on something along those lines...

I had two drafts the other day, one an auction draft (my first ever) and the other a standard snake draft, with the third overall pick. Here's a little timeline of the goings-on Sunday afternoon:

First off, no drinking. Ahem-I'm trying to WIN something right now, and it ain't cornhole, so no drinkie. (Plus I was alone and had a softball game at 7, followed by 3 hours in the car to grab the girlie from DIA.) Six of one...

Anywhoo-

First pick at 3, Pujols. I can't grasp how he falls. I took him at #13 last year and rode him all the way to the finals. The man walks nearly twice as much as he K's. Far and away the most points you can put on your team, year after year (this statement all but guarantees Chris R. Young hits HIM in the face with a liner this year or some crap). I understand 1B is deep, but still. FYI, Wright went #1, Hanley #2. Hadn't seen Wright at 1 before, and it's a straight-up points league...dude's a total badass and 3B is thin. Still, I take Pujols at 1.

The rest of the draft went like this:

Sober. HA! For reals-

2-Nick Markakis-my kind of player, patient, young, could 'turn the corner' they say...whatever that means. Saying Nick Markakis could 'turn the corner' this year is like saying I could eat a whole baked ziti in one sitting. Duh! I just did that!

3-Longoria. These people are drafting pitchers because they are drunk. Merci bien, showernozzles.

I'm all giddy-these three dudes are Studley Dudleys, Pujols is the eldest at 28. Christ, Longo might hit 45 dingdongs this year if he stays healthy. With Wright off the board right away and ARod becoming baseball's Michael Jackson, I thought for sure I'd be looking at Jed Lowrie in the 19th or something, but there's Longoria, and there goes Vladdy two picks later. These guys are jackasses.

4-Mclouth is there, so's I takes him. Gonna get the papers. (2x)

5-Jake Peavy-in my mind, a little early still for a pitcher, but 'tevs, Jake and I are SOOO on again/off again so I take him. Down year puts him right back in my lineup, my dreams, my thoughts at red lights...For the record I do like having a top 10 pitcher on my team. I just think it makes the season more emotionally bearable. Last year I ran GOD DAMNED BRANDAN MORROW out in the finals and got a nice salty pork enema.

6-Alexi Ramirez-still half-chubbed about him from last year, NOT my prototypical player, a little too Alfonso Soriano for me, but he still plays 2nd, hits ropes, upside, yadda, White Sox, yadda-he'll be eligible at SS within the first couple of weeks to boot, so I'm all kinds of flexible in the middle. This is important, because later on, if someone goes down, I can plug the strongest MI, not just 2B or SS. Booyes. Good time to mention position flexibility. It's good. That's it.

7-Joe Votto. I know, I know...too early. DelgadoLD was there. Giambi, Carlos Pena, Conor Jackson-Jacksoff and James Lonely were also there. Votto is like Lance Berkman, who I love so much I can barely stand it. Again, dude walks, plays in a great park, young...blah blah. This is a 12 team league with CI and MI as well as 1B and Utility; deep.

The weight I give to fantasy consistency over many years has an inverse relationship to upside the further down the draft I go. So, Votto makes some sense at 7. Though, you should know that I can also convince myself that hamburgers are actually very healthy, it's the buns that cause 'fat sides'.

8-Pat the Bat Burrell-honestly, I have no love for the dude, but he's what the other geeks call 'an OPS hog'. OPS in the middle of a stacked lineup, DHing (he'll probably get 1B and OF eligibility along the way), means good things. Frankly I was bummed because Volquez and F. Liriano went JUST ahead of him, but, who's that on the turn?? Could it be? Yes! IT IS!!!

9-Daisuke Matsuzaka-I know, a little on the ugly side with his 5 2/3 innings of six-walk ball half the time. But he K's just about one guy per inning, and went 18-3 last year. That's right, 3 losses. And the Sox' bullpen is better, the defense is better, and you don't lose points for walks. Far as I'm concerned, if he goes 200 innings, he gets very strong Cy Young consideration.

But, no MI or SS that is actually eligible at SS for the beginning of the season...

Don't love Michael Young-but Peralta is there, and you know what? I'm taking him.

10-Jhonny Peralta. I'll take .275-25-100 in the 10th round at a weak position for SURE. EVERY TIME.

11-Josh Johnson-the NL's Francisco Liriano everyone always says. Numbers look very promising. He's healthy (post Tommy John surgery, but double 'tevs). Done.

12-Kelly Johnson-hey, that's the last time I take two Johnsons one after the other. HAY-O!

13-Wainwright-He's alleged to be nasty, but I know nothing. If Dave Duncan can get teens victories from Todd Wellemeyer, he should be able to do so from Wainwright. Oooh, I'm wicked tall, I'm Adam Wainwright!

14-Doumit-impatient but knocks ropes all over town.

15-Billy Butler (whom I've already dropped for Todd Helton)

16-Kevin Slowey-Low WHIP (it's like OPS for hitters!)

17-SPILBORGHS-get on and score. He and Helton (and Tulo, I like Tulo) are the only reasons why the Rockies remain mildly competitive despite having lost Holliday for some nice gentle scratches on the Rockies' ownership's arm (which is better than what they would have gotten at the trading deadline, or the upcoming post-season, I know).

18-Sean Marshall-Cubs 5 starter, lights-out spring...go get 'em

19-Jayson Werth-20-20 in limited role last year, dude rides pine for now, but he's playing every day in the most stacked lineup in baseball in a hitter's park.

20-Denard Span-he's like Spilborghs only he plays for a better team and runs more. Will end up leading off for the Twinnies, and depending on Mauer's health, the guy could push 120 runs.

So at about round 15, the frikin auction draft starts, and that, dear friends, is a story for another day...like tomorrow.

LATERZZZ-good luck! I know your draft is coming up soon!

Fantasy Baseball. IS MY JAM.

Ohhhh man the drafts are so close, the 180 or so nights of watching the numbers...and my thoughts have already begun their yearly migration, not in one direction, but to that number-filled, breezy and perfect world between the foul lines. Steroids? This is fantasy, MY fantasy, and I don't care. Players have had their issues, but the game itself is perfect, and I have no fear that this particular DUI will ruin baseball's ability to connect people across generations and class lines unlike any other before or since.

Many people simply don't care about how happy this makes us. Many of our friends and family start by entertaining our stories about how we won the week by benching Rick Ankiel, made sweeter by the fact that we lost in the playoffs last year to the guy we just beat, by starting Denard Span instead of Corey Hart, trusting our guts for a change. Our recently dispatched league-mate gave us so much shit for rocking us last year that we are reluctant to call him, and must temper our early-season jawing. It's a framework for camaraderie. But I am never, NEVER as cutthroat in my life as I am in fantasy sports.

It is what it is.-Belichick said it first, and everyone who uses it and enjoys it's unique satisfaction should pour some out for The Now's biggest badass with love handles.

My intention is to write the occasional fantasy article, share what I have learned, and help you, you shrewd, 'net-savvy bastard, you, to win your league for a change. You deserve it. You have earned it through years of almost getting there...only to peter out or be checkmated during what should have been your endgame. I'm still working on mine. Anyone who is passionate about developing a mastery with this stuff really has to learn their way through multiple full playoff seasons to get a handle on it. I have been doing pretty well the past few years, and feel like I actually have something to say on the matter. I haven't won them all, but I have won some.

I read all the other guys; MLB.com, CBSSportsline.com, ESPN.com, Baseballdocs.com, FantasyCafe.com...I listen to podcasts from time to time, and I think those guys do a great job. If you're just starting out, I'm not going to rehash the things they have said. They are far more experienced than I am. Some of them have been doing this for almost as long as Fantasy Baseball has been around. Absolutely, read them. Questions/comments for me? PLEASE. I do actually want your opinion. And your bullshit. Some actual, 'name' advice that I think you should have after reading all the 'Normals'-

Carlos Quentin is not getting any love this year. He's frequently going in the third round, or for something like $15 in many of the auction drafts I look at. If he's there at 3 (even late 2 for my money, I'll get plenty of looks, but I'll say it: I reach for Carlos Quentin every chance I get!) or afterward, grab him. If he doesn't break a bone in his wrist last year, he's your no-question AL MVP. He sees pitches, takes walks, and smashes the HELL out of the ball. He's young, hits in the middle of a potent lineup in the second or third most hitter-friendly park in MLB, and has .280-45-145 potential (with an OBP around .390? In the third round???) There is the potential that the wrist injury slows him down this year, but I don't think so. Dude kept playing. Dude's cool.

Nate McLouth, Kevin Youkillis-Are you kidding me? Again, more dudes that see pitches, walk, and produce. McLouth is surrounded by young talent in Pittsburgh, who will finish this season with a winning record for the first time in maybe 13 years. He's 27 this year, which begins, according to the experts (and I believe them), the prime production years for a baseballer. McLouth is another guy who went in the 13th roundish last year, who may go in the 4th this year. Who cares? Grab his all-star ass and confidently ink in .285-25-90-25. Practically half his hits last year were for extra bases. Drool. The Pirates lineup is much stronger than years past, and he's the biggest contributor in there.

Draft these dudes for what they are, prime-of-their-career, patient hitters who are young enough to bounce back from injuries, but wise enough to walk. This is your fantasy gold.

Ryan Spilborghs-Here's where I talk just a little bit of mess. I think Spilborghs is "this year's last year's Nate McLouth." Only he's the version that hits .300 ALL YEAR, 'cause he plumb don't miss. Last year he struck out twice or more in only six out of eighty-nine games. He pinch-hits well, meaning his approach is reliable and productive. He walked only three fewer times than he struck out last year. When I see this characteristic, I get all geeked because these guys don't slump like your Jay Bruces and your Matt Kemps. If you get .300-30-100 out of a guy who strikes out 150 times (like Bruce and Kemp will this year), it's about as meaningful from a fantasy perspective as a guy like Spilly, who'll go .300-15-80 and cancel his own K's with his walks. If he gets 500 AB's, he'll easily reach those numbers, with plenty of doubles and triples to boot. I'm guessing the Rockies will run a little bit, as they don't have too many obvious threats to go deep. Spilly will surprise, and he might end up undrafted in your league. Plus that little bump from the thin Coors' Field air shouldn't hurt too much either.

Now, it's not as if I'm the first person to mention these guys. But after reading everyone I've read, they are all tempering expectations about the first three, with one resource calling Spilborghs a sleeper. I would encourage you to draft all these players for your team because they still represent good value, even at the rounds in which they are being drafted, DOUBLE SUPER FOR SURE, if your league penalizes for strikeouts.

Anyway, got two drafts tomorrow, must go finish up preparations. Peace and sweet drafts, doggs and doggettes.